Friday, December 31, 2010
10 for 2010: Apple stories that mattered
By Joe Wilcox, Betanews
My last set of year-end retrospectives surprises me, and some Betanews readers may feel the same. Many commenters accuse me of shilling for Apple, of being a fanboy, which I always dismiss. But in looking over my own Apple posts over the last year, I see just how biting are the topics or analyses and wonder what are these fanboy claimers reading. As a group, the posts are insightful -- even though some Macheads' blog rebuttals will assert otherwise. From some one in the Mac camp will come the PC fanboy accusation, which also is untrue.
Unlike the top-10 story lists for Google and Microsoft, this one is more thematic, in part because of CEO Steve Jobs' incredible visible influence over Apple in 2010, following a media leave due to liver-transplant surgery in 2009. One of the best ways to understand how Apple operates and where it's going is to understand the mind of Jobs. He gave unusual opportunities to do just that this year. Among the top-five stories on this list, four are specifically about him.
These are the 10 of my Apple stories I believe that you should have read in 2010. The stories are organized by importance, from least to most -- that is 10 to 1. I weighed importance based on relevance of the analysis to Apple in 2010 and even in coming years. Not all readers will agree on which is more or less important, or perhaps not at all.
I would like to call out several posts that would have made a longer list: "Apple's five stages of Google Grieving" (May 24); "Apple's HTML5 Showcase is rigged" (June 4); "Does Apple demand too much to be cool?" (April 13); and "Clash of the titans: Apple, Google battle for the mobile Web" (April 8). I excluded the last one simply because it made my Google 10 stories list. With that introduction, I present 10 Apple stories that mattered in 2010.
10. "Apple can still win the mobile platform wars, but it won't be easy": Which mobile platform will be more successful? Smartphones are but one small measure of success. In October 2009, I asserted that "Apple cannot win the smartphone wars." Pundits predict iPhone's death brattle before the great Android god. I wouldn't write off Apple just yet. The mobile wars are bigger than smartphones, as Apple already has shown. Also, market share is but one measure of success. Money is more important, and Apple rakes in nearly $600 for every iPhone. I don't believe that Apple can win the smartphone wars, but there's still a chance to win the broader mobile platform device wars. It won't be easy. Posted: August 13.
9. "Is Apple No. 1 and not No. 3 in U.S. PC shipments?": It's a follow-up question to another question posed in late August: "Is Apple the real U.S. PC market share leader -- or soon will be?" I ask both questions based on another: Is iPad a personal computer? I assert "Yes" based on function, but neither Gartner nor IDC, which both released preliminary third-quarter PC shipment data in October, classify iPad as a PC. Right now, iPad isn't really counted anywhere, despite generating $2.17 billion in new revenue during the launch quarter. If iPad is counted as a PC, then based on analysts' projected tablet shipments and IDC's Q3 data, Apple could rank as No. 1 in the United States. What is iPad then?
The analyst firms later released data classifying iPad as a media tablet. Gartner predicted media tablets would cannibalize 10 percent of PC sales in a few years. If tablets are replacing PCs, shouldn't they be counted that way? Posted: October 14.
8. "I was wrong about Apple iPad": The world does need an Apple tablet -- and perhaps others -- contrary to what I asserted in late January post: "The world doesn't need an Apple tablet, or any other." Gloaters will circle my admission like vultures pecking a carcass, but that's the penalty for being wrong. Yes, I was wrong. I admit it.
The gloaters came, and supporters too. Some people wrongly presumed I changed my position because of iPad sales, which were mere projections then. It was the immersive reading experience that got me, particularly after seeing the "Wired" app -- and months later Virgin's "Project." Additionally, I asserted: "The iPad is a remedy for distraction while letting users reap the Internet's benefits." Posted: June 15.
7. "Of course media bias favors Apple": This commentary and its companion, "Be smart, don't buy into iPad hype", question why analysts, bloggers and journalists give so much positive attention to Apple. The state of the news media: Gossip and rumors are rapidly replacing factual reporting -- in large part driven by the Google economy. No company is benefitting more than Apple. The hype is in part driven by the large number of bloggers and journalists using Macs -- the same kind of inherent bias (from Windows users) benefitting Microsoft a computing generation ago. There are also the investors and Wall Street analysts who recognize how much rumors can lift (or collapse) Apple's share price. Who benefits when analysts write favorably about Apple, but don't disclose theirs or their clients' investments and potential conflicts of interest? Posted: March 21.
6. "iPhone 4 isn't one launch but a series of smaller announcements timed to drive up Apple's stock price": Apple is carefully manipulating its share price by the timing of certain product announcements; iPhone 4 is the clearest, recent example. Not that the manipulation is new. In December 2009 I asked: "Are Apple stock price gains the reason for recent tablet rumors?" The answer was an unequivocal "Yes!" based on how share price gains align with rumors -- and Apple announcements that follow.�To be clear: In asserting manipulation, I don't suggest someone is breaking the law or acting unethically. I liken it to a puppeteer masterfully and artistically moving marionettes across a stage. With respect to its share price, Apple is carefully timing certain announcements for maximum share gains.
I'm surprised how little analysis there has been about how Apple manages perception through carefully timed announcements or leaks. The stock hit a 52-week high this week, of $326.66, by the way. Posted: June 21.
5. "Sorry, Steve Jobs, search is happening on smartphones": In early summer, Compete put to shame Jobs' ridiculous April assertion that "search is not happening on phones." According to the analyst firm, search is indeed happening on mobile phones -- 55 percent of smartphone owners have searched locally from their handsets; on average, 15 percent locally search at least once a week. The news that search is happening on phones is good for Google, which has continually updated mobile search features, particularly in 2010, with Android getting a little extra juice over iOS (at least with what rolls out to which mobile operating system first). Then there is all the "stuff" Google wraps around mobile search, particularly the local variety, such as keyword advertising.
Smartphone owners use of local search in part explains Google's attempt to buy Groupon, which rejected a $6 billion bid in early December. Posted: July 6.
4. "What is Steve Jobs Afraid of?:" Apple's CEO made a surprise appearance during the company's fiscal 2010 fourth quarter earnings call. Jobs said he couldn't resist participating, given Apple's record $20.34 billion revenue. But he leveled most of his comments at competitors, and in quite defensive posture. Nearly every Jobs' statement effused defensiveness. I expected more confidence from the legendary Steve Jobs and speaking from position of strength.
Several commenters pointed to Daniel Eran's post ripping me and defending Jobs. Eran's core defense was simply that Jobs made the kind of competitor comments that any CEO would make. Right, but other chief executives often do that from position of weakness -- bravado by, say, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer talking about catching Google in search or dismissing iPhone or iPad as insignificant. That Jobs' competitor attacks came from a position of strength, where he shouldn't feel insecure, reveals something important about his psychology and thinking that is essential to understand when looking at where Apple is going and what its influence will be. Posted: October 19.
3. "Steve Jobs shows little remorse about iPhone 4 Death Grip -- should he?": Apple CEO's handling of the press conference announcing free iPhone 4 cases reveals something more about the psychology and thinking of the man. Jobs was harried and hurried and didn't play the "We're sorry" role very well. There was no real apology, but plenty of justification. Death Grip, where the signal strength meter declines when iPhone is held in the hand, was the gripping business and tech story of the summer. I found Jobs' excuse for why people are seeing Death Grip the lamest of all -- the relatively small number of cases available at launch. The reasoning: If there had been more cases, fewer people would be holding the phone directly. Posted: July 16.
2. "Steve Jobs 'Thoughts on Flash' is just smoke": Jobs' "Thoughts on Flash" memo is a rare glimpse into the mind of the rarest breed: A high-tech, cult figure who isn't a geek. Apple posted the nearly 1,700-word essay earlier in late April, in response to the ongoing debate about Adobe Flash on iPhone OS devices. One-sidedness seeps through nearly all of Jobs' six no-Flash justifications. I don't doubt his sincerity about wanting to protect the iPhone OS device user experience, but there's more. Apple calls iPad "magical and revolutionary," but the same phrase applies to Jobs' ability to make so reasonable arguments that emphasize the positives benefitting Apple products, while de-emphasizing or even ignoring the negatives -- or facts! As I stated in February, "Apple's problem with Flash is mobile applications competition." Apple wants to control the development stack -- plain, pure and simple.
Apple later shipped two new MacBook Air models without Flash installed. Posted: April 29.
1. "Apple is the new AOL and new Microsoft, and whoa that can't be a good thing": Two astoundingly good analyses hit the InterWebs over the US Memorial Day holiday weekend: John Battelle's "Is The iPad A Disappointment? Depends When You Sold Your AOL Stock" and Kroc Camen's "Will Apple Embrace the Web? No." Battelle and Camen come at the topic from different directions, but end up at the same destination: The web will be easier to use on iPhone OS devices, but Apple will confine consumers and developers to its, ah, walled apple grove. The open web ultimately threatens Apple's business model. Posted: June 1.
Copyright Betanews, Inc. 2010
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Celebrities open up their festive photo albums. Featuring: The Hoff, Susan Boyle, Rufus Wainwright, Oprah Winfrey, Alice Cooper, and many more...
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10 for 2010: Google stories that mattered
By Joe Wilcox, Betanews
My second set of year-in-review retrospectives is 10 stories in disguise. The number is closer to 20, because I combined together the 7-part Chrome OS laptop review series into one. While I wrote fewer stories about Google than Microsoft, I found this list harder to create than the first one -- "10 for 2010: Microsoft stories that mattered."
These are 10 (OK, nearly 20) of my Google stories I believe that you should have read in 2010. You still have time! The stories are organized by importance, from least to most -- that is 10 to 1. I weighed importance based on relevance of the analysis to Google in 2010 and even in coming years. Not all readers will agree on which is more or less important, or perhaps not at all.
The year 2010 was tremendously significant for Google, which started off in January with release of the Nexus One, followed by a huge surge in Android handset sales. Google announced its TV product in February, and the first Google TV settop boxes shipped in time for the holidays. New Android tablets released this year, and Google debuted a Chrome OS pilot, with 60,000 laptops for lucky testers, in December. By many other measures -- improvements to Gmail and rapid-fire Android and Chrome releases -- Google showed its stuff as a maturing company.
I will followup with similar post about Apple, highlighting the important stories about it, too. With that introduction, I present 10 Google stories that mattered in 2010.
10. "The Google-Verizon proposal is worse than evil": The Google-Verizon proposal for an "open Internet" would empower the Federal Communications Commission to exert more control over the wired Internet. But the proposal also would strip the government from exerting authority over the wireless Internet, in process allowing services like Verizon to throttle back some services while giving preference to others, like Google's YouTube. It's a devil's agreement. Posted: August 11.
9. "10 reasons I dumped iPhone 3GS for Nexus One": The official Google phone running on T-Mobile is, for me, a better experience and value than iPhone 3GS and AT&T. Among the reasons: AT&T dropped calls; Google leapfrogging Apple in mobile operating system development; and Android notifications bar.
Six months later, I gave up iPhone 4 for the Samsung-made Google Nexus S. But that's a story not yet written. Posted: May 25.
8. "I sold my soul to Google, can I get it back?": Google's free worldview and business approach is fundamentally changing the value of content and other intellectual property produced at cost. Google services are compelling and well connected, making it hard to resist the devil's deal -- taking for free things people usually pay for. Posted: December 1.
7. "Google is a dangerous monopoly -- more than Microsoft ever was": The European Union's preliminary antitrust investigation into Google practices isn't surprising. Google increasingly is becoming gatekeeper to the Internet. Fear that Microsoft would take such a role precipitated a landmark US antitrust case filed in May 1998. Google's intentions aren't the issue so much as its influence.
In late November, the European Union made the investigation official. Posted: February 24.
6. "Why is Google suddenly so evil?": It was the question to ask after Google launched Buzz with privacy controls wide open. How evil this and other actions are depends on viewpoint. To whom is Google's first obligation? Itself? Its shareholders? Or its customers? Sometimes what is evil to one group is sheer goodness to the other. Posted: February 11.
5. "Google soars past Apple and Microsoft with Nexus One superphone": The Google Nexus One launch is as game changing as Apple's June 2007 release of the iPhone. Perhaps, Nexus One is more important, although judging from blogs and tweets, geekdom doesn't yet get it. Apple supercharged the smartphone category with a more natural user interface. Google turned on the superpowers, by finally starting to integrate cloud services into its mobile platform in a hugely useful way.
Many blogs and news sites wrongly reported that Google was pioneering a new direct sales method with Nexus One (I disagreed). Others reported sales had flopped (again, I disagreed). Nexus One succeeded because of its objective -- to establish a baseline reference model for Android manufacturers. It's not surprising that Google later released the Nexus S, as the N1's successor. Posted: January 5.
4. "Like I said, Apple can't win the smartphone wars": As expressed in October 2009 and reiterated here, iPhone is to Android -- and somewhat Symbian OS -- handsets as Macintosh was to the DOS/Windows PC in the 1980s and 1990s. The analysis responds to Mark Sigal's April 26 post: "Five reasons why iPhone vs Android isn't Mac vs Windows." He couldn't be more wrong.
By end of the year, Google reported activating more than 300,000 Android handsets a day. Meanwhile, globally, Gartner projected that Android handsets would catch mark-leading Nokia Symbian phones by 2014. Posted: May 10.
3. "I don't need 10 reasons why Google TV will succeed": Three are enough: Search, advertising and Android. But if you need seven more: Google, Google, Google, Google, Google, Google, Google. The problem right now with Google TV isn't the product but bloggers and journalists spouting off rumors and nonsense and Google failing to respond to them. Google product managers had better get off their duffs and defend their TV software soon, lest the rabble writing top-10 lists creates negative perceptions that could stall Google TV's adoption among manufacturers and content partners.
Related and absolutely worth reading: My Google TV first impressions review. Posted: December 28.
2. "Who really needs a Chrome OS laptop?": You do. On December 7th, Google announced a pilot program, distributing some 60,000 unbranded Cr-48 laptops running Chrome OS. The ambitious undertaking is necessary for manufacturers, developers and potential customers to test the cloud-connected operating system.
A seven-part hands-on using the Cr-48 laptop series followed:
- A week with Google's Chrome OS laptop, Day 1: Getting acquainted
- A week with Google's Chrome OS laptop, Day 2: Becoming a cloud citizen
- A week with Google's Chrome OS laptop, Day 3: Living with Flash
- A week with Google's Chrome OS laptop, Day 4: Who is the cloud for?
- A week with Google's Chrome OS laptop, Day 5: My life in the cloud
- A week with Google's Chrome OS laptop, Day 6: Adopting a new lifestyle
- A week with Google's Chrome OS laptop, Day 7: Settling in for the long haul
1. "Clash of the titans: Apple, Google battle for the mobile Web": The two companies likeliest to have long-term influence over the mobile web take fundamentally different approaches. Apple favors apps, while Google prefers the browser. Behind these approaches are strikingly different worldviews that compliment and conflict. The winning platform, if one is to dominate, will make lots of people rich. Posted: April 8.
Photo Credit: Hadi Carbon
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Almost Game Over for Man Playing Real-Life 'Frogger'
The 23-year old was taken to a local hospital, and is in stable condition. But let his foolishness serve as a warning to the rest of you. Retro arcade games are plenty fun when played via the safety of joystick, but they're not to be acted out in real life.
Almost Game Over for Man Playing Real-Life 'Frogger' originally appeared on Switched on Thu, 30 Dec 2010 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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Thursday, December 30, 2010
Reader Mailbag: Post-Christmas Haze
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In this article, you'll be presented with some basic elements on how to make up your mind about an issue, particularly where it is complicated, divisive, and perhaps even untested.
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More On News Corp.'s Fox Mobile's Sale: Bitbop Will Go On
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Harvard Scientists Disclaim Teen Hearing Loss Epidemic
Last summer, researchers from the Channing Laboratory at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston concluded that teen hearing loss has drastically increased over the last 20 years. The scientists based their conclusions on separate, extensive studies conducted for the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The first survey analyzed the hearing capabilities of 2,500 adolescents between 1988 and 1994, and the second involved 1,791 teens during 2005 and 2006. Well, Harvard Medical School scientists have now performed another investigation into those same numbers, and -- apparently -- the kids are actually alright. According to The Atlantic, the Harvard contrarians determined that, despite the heavy prevalence of MP3s and headphones among modern teens, "the results revealed no change in the prevalence of hearing loss from the early 1990s to the mid-2000s." So, parents should probably lay off their oblivious, hard-rocking kids a little bit -- until the next debatable study arrives, of course. For now, concerned and wary parents can reference the Harvard findings at Pediatrics.
Harvard Scientists Disclaim Teen Hearing Loss Epidemic originally appeared on Switched on Tue, 28 Dec 2010 16:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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Cutting the (Other) Cord: The Best Wireless Internet Options
A reader asks: I'm intrigued by the idea of getting rid of my DSL Internet service, and switching to one of these 4G wireless services I've seen advertised. My question is whether it's actually viable at this point. I have a desktop and a couple laptops, and two phones we use on our home Wi-Fi network, and wonder if these services can handle all that. I have no idea how to research this, so just tell me what to get!
Dear Reader: Like jetpacks and 'Minority Report'-style computer interfaces, totally wireless high-speed Internet access is one of those tech fantasies that just can't get here soon enough. That's not to say versions of this wireless wonderland don't already exist. All of the major cell phone providers, along with a few third-party players, sell devices that nominally fill this particular bill. It's just that they don't quite do it as well as they seem to promise, and, in some cases, service is woefully lacking.
Consumers have long been able to purchase or rent USB antennas that plug into laptops to grant mobile Internet access, and recent years have seen relatively zippy 3G speeds (or at least speeds on par with low-end DSL home service). Most work rather well, but the data plans can be pricey. And, since only one device is able to go online at a given time, antennas aren't a viable alternative to a home network, which allows multiple gadgets to surf the 'Net simultaneously.
Continue reading Cutting the (Other) Cord: The Best Wireless Internet Options
Cutting the (Other) Cord: The Best Wireless Internet Options originally appeared on Switched on Wed, 29 Dec 2010 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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All Those Free Trial CDs Cost AOL Around $300 Million
In the mid-'90s, we remember being befuddled whenever we'd open the Sunday paper to find a CD emblazoned with the AOL logo. Were these people made of money? Were they really giving away compact discs?! As it turns out, yeah, pretty much. According to various former executives, AOL spent something in the neighborhood of $300 million to ship all of those discs.All Those Free Trial CDs Cost AOL Around $300 Million originally appeared on Switched on Tue, 28 Dec 2010 12:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.
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Why 2011 isn't 1995 for Apple
By Robert Scoble
In 1995 I remember waiting in lines to buy Windows 95. It effectively ended the design lead Apple had for 11 years in personal computers. From then on Microsoft had both the thought leadership and the market share. Apple ended up with less than 10 percent market share. Microsoft had most of the rest.
Lots of people think that Apple could repeat 1995 in 2011. This time with iOS instead of Macintosh OS and with Google in the place of Microsoft.
We forget one little thing: 1995 was different.
Here's how.
In 1995 Microsoft had a huge marketshare lead with DOS. That meant it had a huge army of developers who didn't want to switch over to Apple's system, which they saw as very closed and inflexible. I remember developers coming into the consumer electronics store I helped run in the 1980s and they'd complain bitterly about Apple's policies (Apple was far less flexible back then than it is today and forced developers to fit into a "look and feel" set of guidelines).
But I look at who is making money. Back in 1995 developers were mostly making money from DOS. Remember, this caused WordPerfect and Borland to make bad bets. They bet on DOS for too long, while Microsoft CEO Bill Gates went and built some of the first and best Macintosh apps. The lesson, though, doesn't pass from 1995 to 2011. Today where are most of the developers making their money? iOS (according to Sephora, Starbucks, OpenTable, eBay, and many other developers). So, Android has to convince developers to switch, or do both platforms at same time. That's quite different.
Plus, back in 1995, who owned the best distribution and supply chains? Microsoft did. Today? Apple does. Apple didn't have stores back in 1995 that will ensure its products get seen in the marketplace. Back then Microsoft could outspend Apple for shelf space at Frys and other retailers. Plus, Microsoft's model of having many OEMs building hardware for its OS was far superior to Apple's approach. Today that's not really true, because the OEMs aren't really able to bring that much value to the table and Apple has the best supply chains in China locked up (I visited one of them about two years ago and keep in touch with the folks there and that's still the case). So, it's not very likely that a Google phone will ship with better screens or better materials. At least not in volume. That is a huge difference from 1995 to today.
Other differences? Apple has outspent Microsoft on advertising around the world. Look at this picture. It's in Paris subway. Apple bought every square inch of advertising space (it bought the entire subway system's advertising space, it seemed, iPad ads were plastered down the entire trackway). Google isn't able to get its message there. That didn't happen in 1995. Remember how dominant Microsoft's advertising was back then? Microsoft even convinced the Empire State Building to change its colors that evening.
Let's go back to how closed Apple is. Most apps this month got approved in less than a week. Some even got approved in less than four days. During the Christmas rush. Is this as good as Android's (you can ship in minutes) policy? No. But, on the other hand, there are quality controls which consumers appreciate. The apps -- overall -- are better on iOS than on Android. Just check out TweetDeck. It crashes every few minutes on my Android phone. Twitter isn't nearly as nice. Facebook isn't as nice. And most apps aren't as well designed, nor crash resistant, as on iOS.
I am sensing a switch, though. Fred Wilson is leading the charge. But other developers are grumbling about Apple and want there to be an alternative and they are all comparing notes with each other. "How's Angry Birds doing with its advertising-only Android apps?" they ask. Very well, the answer comes back. So that means more developers will take the bet on Android, but so far I haven't seen many go "Android only." Why not? Because they know most of the PR comes from journalists who use mostly iOS devices and most of the best users are on iOS devices too (Sephora's lead mobile developer told me 80 percent of the users who pull out a mobile phone in her stores are using iOS, that is echoed by nearly every developer I talk with). Even Swype, which has been kept from delivering their keyboard on iOS devices showed me a prototype of it running on an iPad and the inventor whispered "if Steve Jobs wants to talk, we'd love to ship this on iOS."
So, when someone says that Apple is repeating the mistakes of 1995 (yes, I've been guilty of saying that in the past couple of years too) you should tell them that 2011 is not even close to the same set of conditions as 1995 has.
Photo Credit: Robert Scoble
Robert Scoble is a long-time tech and video blogger who works for Rackspace, where he is part of the building 43 project. He started blogging in 2000 at scobelizer.com; from 2003-2006 he was a high-profile Microsoft evangelist blogger, and he helped start Channel 9. Scoble grew up in Silicon Valley. He is @scobleizer on Twitter.